For centuries, Russia sought to maintain “buffer zones” against invasions (there have been many) while various opposing powers have sought to “contain” Russia by controlling the same “zones.” In the 1800s, this long-running geopolitical tug of war was known as “The Great Game.” During the 1900s, fortunes of the Game’s participants have shifted in the wake of world wars, revolutions and the Soviet collapse. Now, another shift is upon us […]

Central banks are again willing to do «whatever it takes» to avoid a debt liquidation. However, this will not solve the underlying problem. The eventual unwinding is going to entail massive disruptions. What can investors do to protect themselves against the coming devaluation? […]

The warning signs have been growing in number and frequency. Yet for all the fretting about the trade wars, Cold War II, Brexit, Euro-fragility, populism, sky-rocketing debts, underfunded pensions, and the slowing economy, the vast majority of investors remain confident […]

The morning after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt I spoke to Jim Grant, the brilliant economic historian and a well-known bear, who simply said: “We haven’t been bearish enough…” In the years leading to 2008, our small group of likeminded contrarians spent countless hours […]

Americans of a certain age would recognize the title as a line used by Sgt. Joe Friday of the TV series Dragnet. The competent but humorless Sgt. Friday eschewed idle speculation and always demanded that witnesses stick to the facts. Focusing on the facts rather than speculation […]

Over the past few months, there were two developments especially relevant to the TBR strategy. You may have seen them and noted their import but, if not, here are a few quick observations: Late last year it was reported that the Bank of England had refused to return $550M of gold reserves […]

A committed landlubber until ten years ago, I took a few sailing lessons on a dare and unexpectedly discovered the joys of sailing. When a friend later asked if I would stand in for a crew member on his 18' catboat during a Saturday race, I eagerly agreed, although his sturdy but slow boat […]

Last week the Fed intimated that it may raise rates in June after all. Then again, maybe it won't. If anyone still wonders why policymakers keep acting as indecisive adolescents, the answer lies in the basic financial math - when rates go up, asset prices go down and debt service costs rise […]

A long-time friend and a TBR partner shared a PIMCO note provocatively titled "Rumpelstiltskin at the Fed." For those who do not remember the tale of Rumpelstiltskin, its eponymous character possessed an ability to spin straw into gold […]

By now, everyone has heard about the "Panama Papers" - a leak that exposed dealings of numerous public and private figures from around the world. The revelations came after someone, as yet unknown, delivered to the press 11.5 mm documents that were taken […]

There will undoubtedly be financial crises in the future; but will the next one be as acute as the last? We believe the financial system today is as risky as it was in 2007, if not more. The difference we see is that the policy tools used to extinguish earlier crises by lowering rates and raising liquidity […]

Today's article "A Word of Warning on Gold: Investor Fear May be Fading" entirely misses the mark on the utility of physical gold as a unique source of portfolio diversification in the current environment. The criticisms leveled against gold are the very reasons for why physical gold should be a part [..]